Prediction Win FOR GOP In 2014- Can They Hold It In 2016?
This obviously makes the very nervous. It is one thing to hand wring in the corners, but when a statistician is willing to post his predictions, is another. Back in July, FiveThirtyEight had posted correctly the would most likely retain the chamber. The new forecast now favors the Republicans to win at least six seats and capture the chamber.
This is partially due to the deterioration of Obama’s approval ratings, with links to the . Obama’s approval rating decreased to 42-43 from the average of 45 percent. Additionally, the has “done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions,” said.
What predicted is significant. had successfully predicted every state in the 2012 election, so people are taking notice for his 2014 prediction. Silver and his team crunch the numbers, in order to provide the outcome. [That discern math class in college was worth something.]
Chris Cillizza a writer for concedes with Silverman’s prediction , but is not hopeful the can maintain majority in 2016. accurately accounts for 23 Republican seats, in comparison to 10 Democrats up for the 2016 election. Most of these GOP seats are in the Democratic states. In order to maintain control, if the GOP wins in 2014, the 23 Republican seats within the Democratic states will need to also be held.
I submit another issue is at play. The two opposing factions within the Republican party, tea party Republicans versus the old Republican party.
The GOP was happy for the support of the Tea Party movement, providing momentum for the party back in the day. However, not so much, while in the ranks of the party. House Republican leader has sided with the House no less than six times within the year, sharply opposing the Tea Party-backed members. This is only causing friction within the Republican party.
For those Tea Party members wishing to reduce government over-sight, decrease the ever increasing debt, reduce the federalism mindset, they will be fighting the and the current Old Republican Party.
11 Attorneys General Cite Obamacare Fix Illegal
No less than 11 attorney generals from the GOP state the Obama administration is breaking the law by repeatedly making changes to Obamacare without going through Congress. The use of President Obama’s executive action is an over-reach of his powers. The attorneys general criticizes Obama, using executive action allowing insurance companies to keep offering health plans, that have been canceled for not meeting Obamacare’s more strict standards
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The issue
“We support allowing citizens to keep their health insurance coverage, but the only way to fix this problem-ridden law is to enact changes lawfully: through Congressional action,” the attorneys general wrote in a letter to Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen Sebelius. “The illegal actions by this administration must stop.”
This healthcare fix is “flatly illegal under federal constitutional and statutory law”, they say.
The seven-page letter says the President is violating both his responsibility to execute laws faithfully and the separation of powers between the branches of government.
The Group
The 11 attorney generals signing the letter included the states Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia. West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey wrote the letter .
Officials point to the 1985 Heckler vs Chaney case. The Supreme Court concluded some enforcement actions of laws might be subject to judicial review first.
“We are deeply concerned that this Administration is consistently rewriting new rules and effectively inventing statutory provisions to operationalize a flawed law,” the attorneys general wrote. “And the irony, of course, is that the changes being put forth to fix the disastrous exchanges will ultimately destroy the market and increase health insurance premiums for customers who played by the rules.”
Other issues
HHS continues to “ignore the widespread public outcry over the security of consumers’ private information” on exchanges,” they wrote, adding that they’re concerned about the administration’s decision to “not propose and implement rigorous privacy standards for outreach personnel.”
“Each of us is charged with protecting our states’ consumers,” Morrisey said. “Once a person’s private information is breached, it is very hard to ensure it is secure again. We are troubled that the Administration has not even proposed implementing criminal background checks on people who have access to sensitive private information.”
Summary
The letter was written December 26, 2013 to HHS Kathleen Sebelius to convey concerns of illegality. The seven page letter provides the concerns, citing specific laws and regulations being broken by the Obama Administration.
The “fix” placed by the Obama Administration breaks the constitutional law, while also creating a new statutory obligation or new rule. In essence, Obama is attempting to create new laws, without Congress approval, while breaking existing laws already in place.
The letter then proposes commonsense safeguards on “ways to ensure protection for information”.
